On July 15, 3 gorge key water control project. Pass earlier stage vacate a library, at present water level of 3 gorge reservoir falls to be restricted to flood the following, leave full storage capacity to be Yellow River flood prevention key period prepares. Li An of reporter of Xinhua News Agency is photographed|
Core is read
Forecast according to atmosphere, this year " 7 8 go up " during, our country precipitation will be overall appear " north is much south little " the space distributings, downstream fall all is compared in river of distant river, the Haihe River, the Huaihe River, Yellow River all the year round the corresponding period slants much. Current, rainfall of the Huanghe valley is apparent grow in quantity, dry affluent of river of the Huaihe River appears to flood apparently process. This is meant doing good south while flood prevention works, north also is facing greater flood prevention pressure.
Compare with southern photograph, what characteristic does affection of northern region flood have? How should answer?
Suffer landforms of monsoon climate, landform to affect, our country rain belt is annual from south northerly shift, generally speaking, to " 7 8 on " (the last ten-day of a month came in July August the first ten days of a month) , rain belt can move from north of catchment of the Yangtse River China north, northeast, north is entered advocate flood season.
Forecast according to irrigation works ministry, northward this year much rain area is located in the eastpart part of northeast greater part, China north greater part, Huang Huai, northwest. Suffer its to affect, the catchment such as river of river of the department austral Yellow River middle reaches, Haihe River, Songhua River, distant, the Huaihe River happens likely regional relatively cataclysm.
Dry affluent of river of the Huaihe River appears to flood apparently process, grow in quantity of rainfall of the Huanghe valley
Since entering high water this year, region of river of the Huaihe River is average fall 349 millimeter, relatively historical the corresponding period slants many 36 ％ . On June 11, river of the Huaihe River enters plum rains period, relatively all the year round the corresponding period slants early 8 days. Since entering a plum, region of river of the Huaihe River is average fall 326 millimeter, relatively all the year round plum rains period is average rainfall slants much closer 5 into. Suffer rainfall to affect, dry affluent of river of the Huaihe River appears to flood apparently process. Current, affection of flood of trunk stream of river of the Huaihe River is overall and smooth, water level of main control station all is under warning line.
The near future, the rainfall of the Huanghe valley is apparent grow in quantity, the complexity of weather situation, changeful sex has been shown.
Committee of Yellow River irrigation works concerns chief introduction, according to forecasting, interval of short for Shaanxi Province of hill of middle reaches of the Huanghe valley may appear when bureau ground is short strong rainfall, the possibility that produces the flood is larger, will have strong precipitation process many rounds downstream.
Central observatory predicts, did not come 10 days, china north still much more showery or thundershower weather, bureau ground companion has short when the strong convection weather such as gale of strong precipitation, thunderstorm or hail. Predict " 7 8 on " during, our country precipitation is overall appear " north is much south little " the space distributings. Our country the eastpart part advocate rain belt presents feature of change of apparent phase sex, in July end of the middle ten days of a month, advocate rain belt is located in between the Yangtse River and Yellow River, precipitation intensity is strong; The last ten-day of a month came in July in August the first ten days of a month, advocate rain belt moves north to reach area of the south in northeast to Huang Huai, China north. Rainy area basically is located in area of north of northeast greater part, China north, Huang Huai, Jiang Han, southwest, northwest the eastpart part and in upper, southeast is coastal and other places, the eastpart part of the eastpart part of its China north, yellow the Huaihe River, Jiang Hanxi ministry, southwest, ministry of northwest area southeast and upper part area slant to come more 5 into. Inner Mongolia, ministry of Changjiang Delta Chinese and Western slants little 2 to 5 into.
Risk of calamity of atmosphere of national climate center manages room researcher kingdom answer says, according to forecasting, "7 8 go up " during, downstream rainfall slants in the Huanghe valley much, slant apparently downstream among them much, partial area may appear affection of heavier high water, upper reaches is adjacent all the year round the corresponding period; Rainfall of Haihe River catchment slants apparently much, the likelihood appears more serious flood situation is killed with big damage caused by waterlogging; Rainfall of Songhua River catchment, distant river drainage area relatively all the year round the corresponding period slants much, need to pay close attention to the influence of process of level sex strong rainfall. The downstream, Haihe River, Songhua River northward catchment in the Yellow River may happen regional relatively cataclysm, compare south drainage area, concentration of northward catchment rainfall, strength is great.
Source weak point sheds a few north rivers urgent, pluvial velocity of flow fast, the force with which sth breaks out is fierce
Compare with southern photograph, what characteristic does affection of northern region flood have? "Rainfall of northward flood season can occupy most of its annual rainfall, rainfall allocates concentration inside year, rainstorm strength is great, the force with which sth breaks out is roaring. " Liu Zhiyu of vice director of center of the forecast of natural resources of water of hydrology of irrigation works ministry that monitor introduces.
The data shows, the 75 ％ that Heibei saves flood season rainfall to take annual fall, 85 ％ , rainfall of day of flood season rainstorm often is controlled in 100 millimeter, 24 hours of rainfall can reach specific area 600, 900 millimeter.
"Compare with southern river photograph, the water system of northward river, hydrology has its distinctive place. " Introduction Liu Zhiyu, source of a few rivers is short flow urgent, pluvial velocity of flow fast, the force with which sth breaks out is fierce, transmission time is short, "In addition, a few northward rivers are seasonal river, it is dry river even, factitious element interference is much, change of fluvial underlay face is big, the influence goes big " .
The great river great river such as river of the Huaihe River, Yellow River, Haihe River also has feature of distinctive hydrology water system.
"Once produce the flood, long, water measures duration of flood of trunk stream of water system of river of the Huaihe River big, concern of flow of middle reaches water level and relation of lake of river of downstream Hongze lake are complex. " Liu Zhiyu says.
Liu Zhiyu is analysed, the southern affluent of region of river of the Huaihe River is hill area river, converge is fast, easy with trunk stream flood experience forms big calamity; Upper affluent is Campagna wadi, ground slope falls delay, converge is slow, suffer top of trunk stream flood to hold in the palm, often cause serious waterlogging. Feral, peak height estimates oncoming force of flood of water system of Si of Shu of short for the Yihe River big, steep go up steep fall.
"Transfer of country of Haihe River catchment and Campagna upland the belt is short, it is commonly 10 to 15 kilometers, speak mountain pass occurrence flood to the river from a mountainous area rainfall, foreknow period the longest nevertheless 1, 2 days, short only a few hours. This brings very great difficulty to pluvial forecast. " Introduction Liu Zhiyu, always deciding interval of nek of river official office for instance pale mouth comes 3 inn are area of rainstorm flood easy hair, wadi length is 55 kilometers, the flood foreknows period have 3 only, 4 hours.
Current and northward flood prevention still is put in weak point, answer the preparation before Duodedi, actively
The country is prevented do, lash-up government department introduces about chief, job of current and northward flood prevention still puts in a few weak point: A few rivers do not come for years flood, consciousness of cadre masses take precautions against natural calamities experience of weak, fight a flood is little; Instability of prevent or control flood, the member that area of harbour flood detention mies wife it is much, difficult to enable; River state of affairs is intricate, have water fast, go up situation is fierce, calculate forecast time of difficult, early-warning is short, masses avoids danger move difficulty is great. In addition, library of the urine in northern region, medium little river hidden trouble is more, level of urban drain flooded fields is low the issue is relatively outstanding also. Leave one stage, northward catchment various places should pay attention to path of the brook in chasing paragraph of platoon to check one by one to take up deposit problem, decisive adopt clear measure, seasonable dredge, consolidate dikes, take strict precautions against Xiaohong to cause big disaster; Be in advocate before flood season comes, chase class to begin drilling of early-warning of lash-up of fight a flood, when accomplishing calamity to come fast early-warning, orderly answer.
Introduce according to expert of irrigation works branch, in north a few areas, build dike the project is much, without diluvial test, the hidden danger of safety of presence of the structure that wear a bank such as partial contain brake, flood diversion brake, level of prevent or control flood of partial city reach is low, ill danger reservoir, silt arrester is divided danger consolidate and in task of little river processing is still half-baked.
To answer the flood feeling that the Huanghe valley may produce, came on June 24 on July 10, edge of committee of Yellow River irrigation works and Henan, Shandong is yellow 48 15 city, counties 20 thousand more than person, began 2020 drilling of defence cataclysm actual combat, increase flow of the discharge below wavelet bottom reservoir, examined wadi of mouth of downstream Pu Yang Ka sheds ability too. Committee of Yellow River irrigation works monitors project of forecast early-warning, water clearly to attemper, project safety spends flood and foundation to guarantee job of high water of 45 keys equipment, arrangement person specially assigned for a task dogs supervise and direct, responsibility of flood prevention of comprehensive squeezing ramming. In addition, aggrandizement reservoir silt arrester spends flood management, flood season strengthens drainage area prevent or control flood of 346 water project attempers flood is restricted water level is superintended, forbidden violate compasses exceed flood to be restricted water level moves.
Be aimed at the forecast difficult problem of northward river, liu Zhiyu introduces, irrigation works branch introduces the new technology such as monitoring of information confluence, video, big data this year, before Hua Beishan Campagna area cloth sets lash-up to monitor section, monitor information according to upper reaches, scroll revises forecast, raise downstream wadi to forecast precision. "In order to survey make a report after the event " the technical application in river of Zhang river, Hu a small bay in a river makes clear as a result, average precision rises 10% .
Nearly two years, precision of forecast of our country flood rose on average 5% , south arrives from original 85% promotion 90% present, northward forecast accuracy rate is amounted to 70% .
2 class floorwalker, city prevents bureau of Wu of Tianjin town water do vice director Liang Baoshuang to say, in recent years, system of project of Tianjin prevent or control flood already relatively perfect, but did not produce a cataclysm for years as a result of Haihe River catchment, flood prevention beforehand case lack actual combat examines, team of flood prevention rush to deal with an emergency had not seen flood mostly, had not grabbed big risk, had not saved big calamity, assume " misfortune risk is serious " the experience of the task is scant. Tianjin city prepares from the defence that begins to begin spate exceeding bid at the beginning of March, drive epidemic situation to prevent as a whole accuse and high water of equipment of prevent or control flood, had made preparation of rush to deal with an emergency of flood exceeding bid.
Er of Inner Mongolia another name for Hubei province is much this chief of bureau of irrigation works of city Hangzhou silk banner introduces, to answer pluvial pass through the territory of a country, headquarters of fight a drought of banner flood prevention is right " lash-up of Hang Jinqi flood prevention beforehand case " undertook editing perfecting. Began on June 15, bureau of Hang Jinqi irrigation works and each wadi management paragraph begin to execute flood season 24 hours to be worth class system. Lash-up of organization of orgnaization of direct of fight a drought of flood prevention of Inner Mongolia each district, atmosphere, irrigation works, live build wait for a branch to strengthen federation business, make the monitoring forecast such as regimen of good weather situation, river.
Up to on July 14, flow of water of river of river of Heilongjiang complete province is overall and smooth, river river water level all under warning line. Compare with photograph of calendar year the corresponding period, heilongjiang trunk stream gets benefit frequently, stroke far river paragraph on the high side, other river paragraph on the low side; Mu Sijiang of source of cause of Songhua River trunk stream, beautiful paragraph on the low side, other river paragraph on the high side.
"Rainfall of complete in June province slants than the corresponding period much 28% , many river water level exceeds alarm. Since July, heilongjiang is provincial rainfall drop off, air temperature is elevatory, according to atmosphere branch forecast, short-term inside won't appear affection of big range flood, but waterlogged sharp risk still keeps on land in, cannot treat sth lightly. " senior engineer Liu Wenbin says center of natural resources of water of Heilongjiang province hydrology.
(Wang Hao of reporter of integrated People's Daily, Zhao Beijia, Ding Yiting, Hao Yingcan, circumference, Jin Bo, Wu Yong reports)
" People's Daily " (on July 16, 2020 The 14th edition)